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An Accident Model for Arctic Shipping

[+] Author Affiliations
Doug Smith, Brian Veitch, Faisal Khan, Rocky Taylor

Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John’s, NL, Canada

Paper No. OMAE2015-41415, pp. V001T01A047; 6 pages
  • ASME 2015 34th International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering
  • Volume 1: Offshore Technology; Offshore Geotechnics
  • St. John’s, Newfoundland, Canada, May 31–June 5, 2015
  • Conference Sponsors: Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering Division
  • ISBN: 978-0-7918-5647-5
  • Copyright © 2015 by ASME


This paper examines historical Arctic marine accidents from 1995–2004. It was seen during this time period that sinking and grounding of (fishing) vessels was the most common type of Arctic marine accident. A comprehensive accident model is presented to describe Arctic shipping accidents and their causation factors. The accident model is based on epidemiological concepts which explain how non-sequential factors result in an unwanted outcome, analogous to disease spreading through a human body. The causation factors are non-sequential and non-linearly dependent. The applicability of the model is demonstrated through examination of two past accidents: the Kolskaya and the Kulluk. Detailed description of how the accident model could be used for predictive accident modelling and risk analysis of Arctic shipping scenarios is also presented.

Copyright © 2015 by ASME



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