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A Random Process Metamodel for Time-Dependent Reliability of Dynamic Systems

[+] Author Affiliations
Dorin Drignei, Igor Baseski, Zissimos P. Mourelatos, Vijitashwa Pandey

Oakland University, Rochester, MI

Paper No. DETC2014-34313, pp. V02AT03A037; 10 pages
  • ASME 2014 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference
  • Volume 2A: 40th Design Automation Conference
  • Buffalo, New York, USA, August 17–20, 2014
  • Conference Sponsors: Design Engineering Division, Computers and Information in Engineering Division
  • ISBN: 978-0-7918-4631-5
  • Copyright © 2014 by ASME


A new metamodeling approach is proposed to characterize the output (response) random process of a dynamic system with random variables, excited by input random processes. The metamodel is then used to efficiently estimate the time-dependent reliability. The input random processes are decomposed using principal components or wavelets and a few simulations are used to estimate the distributions of the decomposition coefficients. A similar decomposition is performed on the output random process. A Kriging model is then built between the input and output decomposition coefficients and is used subsequently to quantify the output random process corresponding to a realization of the input random variables and random processes. In our approach, the system input is not deterministic but random. We establish therefore, a surrogate model between the input and output random processes. The quantified output random process is finally used to estimate the time-dependent reliability or probability of failure using the total probability theorem. The proposed method is illustrated with a corroding beam example.

Copyright © 2014 by ASME



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