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Proposal of Design Support Method of Sustainability Scenarios in Backcasting Manner

[+] Author Affiliations
Yuji Mizuno, Yusuke Kishita, Haruna Wada, Kazuhiro Kobayashi, Shinichi Fukushige, Yasushi Umeda

Osaka University, Suita, Osaka, Japan

Paper No. DETC2012-70850, pp. 767-776; 10 pages
  • ASME 2012 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference
  • Volume 5: 6th International Conference on Micro- and Nanosystems; 17th Design for Manufacturing and the Life Cycle Conference
  • Chicago, Illinois, USA, August 12–15, 2012
  • Conference Sponsors: Design Engineering Division, Computers and Information in Engineering Division
  • ISBN: 978-0-7918-4504-2
  • Copyright © 2012 by ASME


Describing sustainability scenarios is a hopeful approach for envisioning sustainable future visions of industries. However, describing sustainability scenarios is a difficult task and there is no computational support method. This article proposes a design support method of sustainability scenarios in a backcasting manner, which means thinking backward from targeted futures. For the design support method, we propose the following two methods; (i) a method for supporting backward thinking and constructing future visions using a logic tree and (ii) a method for drawing transition paths based on the logic tree. As a case study, we designed “Sustainable manufacturing scenario,” which envisions sustainable future visions of manufacturing industries. Through the case study, we identified the effectiveness of the proposed method. The proposed method supports designing the scenario in clarifying the future visions, drawing the transition paths, and describing them in scenario structurally.

Copyright © 2012 by ASME



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