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Storm Surge Estimation Along Tokyo Bay Based on a Simple Stochastic Approach

[+] Author Affiliations
Rikito Hisamatsu, Shigeru Tabeta

University of Tokyo, Kashiwa, Japan

Sooyoul Kim

Tottori University, Tottori, Japan

Paper No. OMAE2018-77353, pp. V006T05A025; 7 pages
doi:10.1115/OMAE2018-77353
From:
  • ASME 2018 37th International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering
  • Volume 6: Ocean Space Utilization
  • Madrid, Spain, June 17–22, 2018
  • Conference Sponsors: Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering Division
  • ISBN: 978-0-7918-5125-8
  • Copyright © 2018 by ASME

abstract

In recent years, refinement of stochastic storm surge estimation is essential for risk management in insurance industries because the Japanese government promotes flood risk transfer to insurance companies. Insurance systems may reach peak risk when storm surge damage occurs; however, there are only a few studies on the stochastic analysis of storm surges. This paper presents the stochastic evaluation of storm surges in Tokyo Bay. First, storm surges are assessed using two methods of an empirical formula and a numerical model. Then, the return period of storm surges is stochastically evaluated. It is found that an empirical formula underestimates the surge level in comparison to the numerical model. Based on the results of numerical model, the return period of a storm surge is proposed in Tokyo Bay.

Copyright © 2018 by ASME
Topics: Storms , Surges

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