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The Current Research Status and Technical Development Framework of Multi-Reactor Probabilistic Consequence Assessment

[+] Author Affiliations
Hongchun Ding, Jiejuan Tong, Liguo Zhang

Tsinghua University, Beijing, China

Lu Wang

Nuclear Power Institute of China, Chengdu, China

Ruiying Wang

China Ship Development and Design Center, Wuhan, China

Paper No. ICONE25-66365, pp. V004T06A010; 7 pages
  • 2017 25th International Conference on Nuclear Engineering
  • Volume 4: Nuclear Safety, Security, Non-Proliferation and Cyber Security; Risk Management
  • Shanghai, China, July 2–6, 2017
  • Conference Sponsors: Nuclear Engineering Division
  • ISBN: 978-0-7918-5782-3
  • Copyright © 2017 by ASME


The Fukushima Daiichi Accident in March 2011 gave rise to public attention on the possibility and severity of multi-reactor accident, i.e. multiple reactors and spent fuel pools on one site affected by an accident simultaneously or one after the other. Multi-reactor sites are a common phenomenon among nuclear development countries. The current safety assessment and regulatory requirements are established in the light of one reactor in a site. However, the reactors in a site are not independent with each other. Due to these dependencies, there are potential risk comes from multi-reactor accidents. Under this condition, many non-linear components will be involved into the evaluation of radiological consequences. Thus the Site Probabilistic Risk Assessment (SPRA) is not the linear superposition of PRAs in each reactor. From this point of view, SPRA should be developed according to the characteristics of multi-reactor nuclear accidents so as to quantitatively assess the risk of multi-reactor sites. Probabilistic Consequence Assessment (PCA) as part of the Level 3 PRA estimates the offsite consequence combined with the source term and occurrence frequency of accident given by the Level 2 PRA. PCA is an important part and tool to evaluate the overall social risk and verify the safety goals of NPPs. Multi-reactor PCA is an essential technical tool to discuss the multi-reactor issues, such as the verification of safety goal and the development of emergency planning zone (EPZ) in multi-reactor sites. In this paper, the current research status about multi-reactor PCA in main nuclear countries and nuclear organizations are elaborated and a technical development framework is proposed aimed at the multi-reactor site based on MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System (MACCS).

Copyright © 2017 by ASME



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