0

Full Content is available to subscribers

Subscribe/Learn More  >

Probabilistic Approach for Assessing the Weather and External Forces Hazard Using Bayesian Belief Networks

[+] Author Affiliations
Julián Chaves Agudelo, Jaime Hernán Aristizábal Ceballos

Cenit Transporte y Logística de Hidrocarburos, Bogotá, Colombia

Juan Pablo Alvarado Franco, Jessica Buriticá Cortés

Applus Norcontrol Colombia, Bogotá, Colombia

Paper No. IPG2017-2528, pp. V001T02A006; 8 pages
doi:10.1115/IPG2017-2528
From:
  • ASME 2017 International Pipeline Geotechnical Conference
  • ASME 2017 International Pipeline Geotechnical Conference
  • Lima, Peru, July 25–26, 2017
  • Conference Sponsors: Pipeline Systems Division
  • ISBN: 978-0-7918-5762-5
  • Copyright © 2017 by ASME

abstract

This paper presents a probabilistic approach for the assessment of the Weather and External Forces hazard in pipelines using a Bayesian Belief Network. Such model was constructed through structured expert judgment methods for those factors whose deterministic modelling is complex or unknown and existent models for those known factors or previously studied phenomena. For the hazard modelling, three fundamental groups of variables were considered: susceptibility, triggering events and vulnerability. Through this proposal, the hazard is described from a probabilistic perspective, including the uncertainty associated with instability processes, information gathering and analysis and risk perception, among others. A transportation system characterized by its high geotechnical complexity is used as a case study, and results were compared with the current assessment model. The results show that the new model has greater sensitivity to the hazard level while being consistent with both the condition of the Right of Way (ROW) and the hydrocarbon transportation infrastructure.

Copyright © 2017 by ASME
Topics: Hazards

Figures

Tables

Interactive Graphics

Video

Country-Specific Mortality and Growth Failure in Infancy and Yound Children and Association With Material Stature

Use interactive graphics and maps to view and sort country-specific infant and early dhildhood mortality and growth failure data and their association with maternal

NOTE:
Citing articles are presented as examples only. In non-demo SCM6 implementation, integration with CrossRef’s "Cited By" API will populate this tab (http://www.crossref.org/citedby.html).

Some tools below are only available to our subscribers or users with an online account.

Related Content

Customize your page view by dragging and repositioning the boxes below.

Related eBook Content
Topic Collections

Sorry! You do not have access to this content. For assistance or to subscribe, please contact us:

  • TELEPHONE: 1-800-843-2763 (Toll-free in the USA)
  • EMAIL: asmedigitalcollection@asme.org
Sign In