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Framing Uncertainty in Pipeline Geohazard Assessment for Integrity Management and Iterative Risk Assessment

[+] Author Affiliations
Rodney Read

RSRead Consulting Inc., Okotoks, AB, Canada

John Erick Malpartida Moya, Giancarlo Massucco de la Sota

Compañía Operadora de Gas del Amazonas, Lurin, Perú

Paper No. IPG2017-2505, pp. V001T02A001; 12 pages
doi:10.1115/IPG2017-2505
From:
  • ASME 2017 International Pipeline Geotechnical Conference
  • ASME 2017 International Pipeline Geotechnical Conference
  • Lima, Peru, July 25–26, 2017
  • Conference Sponsors: Pipeline Systems Division
  • ISBN: 978-0-7918-5762-5
  • Copyright © 2017 by ASME

abstract

Pipeline geohazard assessment is becoming recognized by operators and regulators as an increasingly important constituent of overall integrity management and iterative risk assessment of pipelines. An ongoing challenge in assessing the threat posed to a pipeline by various geohazard mechanisms within the B31.8S category of Weather-related and Outside Force is the degree of uncertainty associated with estimates of frequency of occurrence, vulnerability, and loss of containment for individual and cospatial geohazard mechanisms. When combined with threats of other types, such as corrosion and third party damage, estimates of geohazard occurrence frequency and their associated frequency (or probability) of loss of containment may seem imprecise and uncertain. This paper discusses a framework for assessing geohazard susceptibility and the associated uncertainty, and means of incorporating and communicating uncertainty in hazard and risk assessments. Examples are provided from a case study in Perú.

Copyright © 2017 by ASME

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