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Co-Occurrence Probability Analysis of Sea Ice at Yingkou and Huludao Observation Stations of China

[+] Author Affiliations
Shanshan Tao, Zhifeng Wang, Ri Zhang, Sheng Dong

Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China

Paper No. OMAE2017-61353, pp. V008T07A008; 6 pages
doi:10.1115/OMAE2017-61353
From:
  • ASME 2017 36th International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering
  • Volume 8: Polar and Arctic Sciences and Technology; Petroleum Technology
  • Trondheim, Norway, June 25–30, 2017
  • Conference Sponsors: Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering Division
  • ISBN: 978-0-7918-5776-2
  • Copyright © 2017 by ASME

abstract

Co-occurrence probability analysis of sea ice between adjacent areas is very helpful for the hazard prevention and protection strategy making of coastal and offshore engineering. Yingkou and Huludao with similar latitudes are located on the opposite sides of Liaodong Bay of China. Their sea ice conditions are both apparent in winter and early spring, so it is useful to study on the co-occurrence situations of sea ice conditions between these two areas. Based on the annual maximum sea ice thickness of Yingkou and Huludao observation stations, the co-occurrence probability analysis of sea ice thickness is conducted. The joint probability distributions of sea ice thickness between these adjacent areas are constructed by using univariate maximum entropy distributions and four bivariate copulas. Both marginal curve fittings are very well, and the model determined by Gumbel-Hougaard copula describes the bivariate sea ice thickness data best. Then different cases of co-occurrence probabilities of sea ice thickness between Yingkou and Huludao are presented, and they can provide references to the hazard protection of the coastal and offshore structures between these two areas.

Copyright © 2017 by ASME
Topics: China , Probability , Sea ice

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