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Prediction of Oceanic Rogue Waves Through Tracking Energy Fluxes

[+] Author Affiliations
Qiuchen Guo, Mohammad-Reza Alam

University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, CA

Paper No. OMAE2017-62261, pp. V03AT02A014; 6 pages
  • ASME 2017 36th International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering
  • Volume 3A: Structures, Safety and Reliability
  • Trondheim, Norway, June 25–30, 2017
  • Conference Sponsors: Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering Division
  • ISBN: 978-0-7918-5765-6
  • Copyright © 2017 by ASME


Here, we show that location of an upcoming rogue wave can be inferred, well in advance, from spatial distribution of energy flux across the ocean surface. We use a statistical approach, and by investigating hundreds of numerical rogue wave realizations in weakly nonlinear wave fields establish a quantitative metric via which predictions can be made. Direct simulations are performed by a higher-order spectral method (HOS), and JONSWAP distribution is used to initialize the wave field. The presented metric may establish a readily achievable measure to identify turbulent locations within a sea, through which timely preventive measures can be taken to minimize damages to lives and properties.

Copyright © 2017 by ASME



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