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Metocean Design Criteria Considerations in South China Sea by Adopting Multivariate Extreme Value Theory

[+] Author Affiliations
Ping Li, Qi Zhu, Chunqi Zhou, Linbin Li, Hongtao Li

China Classification Society, Beijing, China

Paper No. OMAE2017-62541, pp. V001T01A028; 10 pages
doi:10.1115/OMAE2017-62541
From:
  • ASME 2017 36th International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering
  • Volume 1: Offshore Technology
  • Trondheim, Norway, June 25–30, 2017
  • Conference Sponsors: Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering Division
  • ISBN: 978-0-7918-5763-2
  • Copyright © 2017 by ASME

abstract

The proper determination of metocean design criteria is critical for offshore structures. We study in this paper the univariate and multivariate compound extreme value theories and their applications to metocean data. Firstly, we adopt Compound Extreme Value Distribution (CEVD) method to derive the marginal distributions of wind speeds and significant wave heights respectively. Modelling uncertainties are considered with different distribution models. Secondly, the basic theory of Bivariate Compound Extreme Value Distribution (BCEVD), especially Poisson Bivariate Gumbel Logistic Distribution (PBGLD) is reviewed and utilized to analyze the joint probability distribution of significant wave heights and the concomitant wind speeds. Thirdly, Extreme Water Level (EWL) which is defined as the combination of wave crest, surge height and tidal elevation, is analyzed. We treat astronomical tide as a deterministic phenomenon and estimate the joint probability distribution of crest heights and storm surges. Case studies are given for picked position points in Northern South China Sea with 40 years hindcasted data. The results of this paper could give some knowledge for the determination and refinement of metocean design parameters.

Copyright © 2017 by ASME
Topics: Design , China , Seas

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