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Seismic Quantitative Risk Assessment of Process Plants Through Monte Carlo Simulations

[+] Author Affiliations
Silvia Alessandri, Antonio C. Caputo, Daniele Corritore, Renato Giannini, Fabrizio Paolacci

Roma Tre University, Rome, Italy

Paper No. PVP2016-63064, pp. V008T08A013; 9 pages
  • ASME 2016 Pressure Vessels and Piping Conference
  • Volume 8: Seismic Engineering
  • Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, July 17–21, 2016
  • Conference Sponsors: Pressure Vessels and Piping Division
  • ISBN: 978-0-7918-5046-6
  • Copyright © 2016 by ASME


This paper describes the application of Monte Carlo method for the quantitative seismic risk assessment (QSRA) of process plants. Starting from the seismic hazard curve of the site where the plant is located, the possible chains of accidents are modelled using a sequence of propagation levels in which Level 0 is represented by the components directly damaged by the earthquake whereas the subsequent Levels represent the resulting consequence propagation. In greater detail all units damaged by energy and materials releases from level 0 units are included in level 1 and so forth, so that referring to process units belonging to a generic i-th Level, they are damaged by level (i-1) units and damage units of level (i+1). The sequence of levels represents the damage propagation across the plant through any multiple interacting sequences of accidents. For each unit a damage (DM) - loss of containment (LOC) matrix is generated allowing to estimate the amount of energy and material releases as well as resulting physical effects based on which the scenario at i-th level is generated. The process stops when no further damage propagation is allowed.

Copyright © 2016 by ASME



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