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A Probabilistic Approach to Predicting Pipework Failures in High Temperature Environments

[+] Author Affiliations
Benjamin Cannell, David Lloyd, Feras ElAgha, David Knowles

WS Atkins Ltd., Bristol, UK

Paper No. PVP2016-63518, pp. V003T03A020; 10 pages
  • ASME 2016 Pressure Vessels and Piping Conference
  • Volume 3: Design and Analysis
  • Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, July 17–21, 2016
  • Conference Sponsors: Pressure Vessels and Piping Division
  • ISBN: 978-0-7918-5039-8
  • Copyright © 2016 by ASME


Structural integrity assessments are traditionally undertaken using lower bound deterministic approaches whereby the worst combination of loads, operating conditions and material properties are assumed. This can lead to excessively conservative predictions which give pessimistic outlooks for plant life. A more representative approach which allows for consideration of acceptable levels of reliability of a component / system can be achieved through use of probabilistic assessment methods. A probabilistic approach aims to capture the uncertainties in the plant conditions, system loads and material properties (including degradation in-service).

This paper outlines a focused approach to undertaking a ‘Monte-Carlo’ probabilistic assessment of thin stainless steel pipework in high temperature environments considering failure due to creep rupture and plastic collapse whereby known or estimated statistical distributions of the assessment inputs are randomly sampled. The method is undertaken in Excel using VBA and it is developed to provide a transparent, quick and easy approach for a probabilistic assessment.

Copyright © 2016 by ASME



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