0

Full Content is available to subscribers

Subscribe/Learn More  >

Copula-Based Bivariate Modelling of Significant Wave Height and Wave Period and the Effects of Climate Change on the Joint Distribution

[+] Author Affiliations
Erik Vanem

DNV-GL, Høvik, Norway

Paper No. OMAE2016-54314, pp. V003T02A033; 12 pages
doi:10.1115/OMAE2016-54314
From:
  • ASME 2016 35th International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering
  • Volume 3: Structures, Safety and Reliability
  • Busan, South Korea, June 19–24, 2016
  • Conference Sponsors: Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering Division
  • ISBN: 978-0-7918-4994-1
  • Copyright © 2016 by ASME

abstract

The joint distribution of several met-ocean variables is required for risk assessment and load and response calculations in marine engineering. For example, a joint description is needed to construct environmental contours for probabilistic structural reliability analyses. Typically, the joint distribution of significant wave height and wave period is required as a minimum.

This paper presents a study on various bivariate modelling techniques for the joint distribution of significant wave height and zero-crossing wave period, i.e. a conditional model, a bi-variate log-normal model and several meta-models based on parametric copulas. Each of the models is fitted to data generated from a numerical wave model for the current climate and for two future climates consistent with the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Thus, the objective of this study is twofold. First, the joint models obtained by the various modelling techniques will be compared. Secondly, the potential effect of climate change on the simultaneous distribution of significant wave height and wave period will be explored.

The results indicate that straightforward application of many of the most common families of copulas fails to capture the dependence structure in the data, and that the conditional model performs better than these naive approaches. However, if more advanced copula construction techniques are applied, significant improvements can be achieved. The results also suggest that significant wave height and zero-crossing wave period tend to be more correlated in a future climate, at least in the extremes.

Copyright © 2016 by ASME

Figures

Tables

Interactive Graphics

Video

Country-Specific Mortality and Growth Failure in Infancy and Yound Children and Association With Material Stature

Use interactive graphics and maps to view and sort country-specific infant and early dhildhood mortality and growth failure data and their association with maternal

NOTE:
Citing articles are presented as examples only. In non-demo SCM6 implementation, integration with CrossRef’s "Cited By" API will populate this tab (http://www.crossref.org/citedby.html).

Some tools below are only available to our subscribers or users with an online account.

Related Content

Customize your page view by dragging and repositioning the boxes below.

Related eBook Content
Topic Collections

Sorry! You do not have access to this content. For assistance or to subscribe, please contact us:

  • TELEPHONE: 1-800-843-2763 (Toll-free in the USA)
  • EMAIL: asmedigitalcollection@asme.org
Sign In