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A Preliminary Methodology for Broken Rail Caused Freight Train Derailment Risk Analysis

[+] Author Affiliations
Tal Ben-Gera, Jiabo He, Xiang Liu

Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, Piscataway, NJ

Paper No. JRC2016-5742, pp. V001T06A006; 4 pages
  • 2016 Joint Rail Conference
  • 2016 Joint Rail Conference
  • Columbia, South Carolina, USA, April 12–15, 2016
  • Conference Sponsors: Rail Transportation Division
  • ISBN: 978-0-7918-4967-5
  • Copyright © 2016 by ASME


This paper investigates the influence of rail age, annual traffic density, and inspection frequency on broken-rail-caused train derailment risk. First, we estimate the probability of a broken-rail-caused train derailment based on a sequence of stochastic processes including rail defect formation, growth, detection and the likelihood that a broken rail causes a derailment. In addition to derailment frequency, we also estimate derailment severity, which is measured by the average number of railcars derailed per train derailment, based on FRA-reportable train derailment data. The preliminary risk analysis model provides a quantitative approach to understand broken rail risk, and potentially aid in development of effective ways to mitigate derailment risk.

Copyright © 2016 by ASME
Topics: Risk analysis , Rails , Trains



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