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A Hybrid Statistical Method for Accurate Prediction of Supplier Delivery Times of Aircraft Engine Parts

[+] Author Affiliations
Ashis Gopal Banerjee, Walter Yund, Dan Yang, Peter Koudal, John Carbone, Joseph Salvo

General Electric Global Research, Niskayuna, NY

Paper No. DETC2015-47605, pp. V01BT02A037; 10 pages
doi:10.1115/DETC2015-47605
From:
  • ASME 2015 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference
  • Volume 1B: 35th Computers and Information in Engineering Conference
  • Boston, Massachusetts, USA, August 2–5, 2015
  • Conference Sponsors: Design Engineering Division, Computers and Information in Engineering Division
  • ISBN: 978-0-7918-5705-2
  • Copyright © 2015 by ASME

abstract

Aircraft engine assembly operations require thousands of parts provided by several geographically distributed suppliers. A majority of the operation steps are sequential, necessitating the availability of all the parts at appropriate times for these steps to be completed successfully. Thus, being able to accurately predict the availabilities of parts based on supplier deliveries is critical to minimizing the delays in meeting the customer demands. However, such accurate prediction is challenging due to the large lead times of these parts, limited knowledge of supplier capacities and capabilities, macroeconomic trends affecting material procurement and transportation times, and unreliable delivery date estimates provided by the suppliers themselves. We address these challenges by developing a statistical method that learns a hybrid stepwise regression — generalized multivariate gamma distribution model from historical transactional data on closed part purchase orders and is able to infer part delivery dates sufficiently before the supplier-promised delivery dates for open purchase orders. The hybrid form of the model makes it robust to data quality and short-term temporal effects as well as biased toward overestimating rather than underestimating the part delivery dates. Test results on real-world purchase orders demonstrate effective performance with low prediction errors and constantly high ratios of true positive to false positive predictions.

Copyright © 2015 by ASME

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