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Markov Decision Models for Optimal Decision Making in Bottlenecks Identification and Mitigation

[+] Author Affiliations
Yang Li, Xiaoning Jin, Jun Ni

University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI

Qing Chang

Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY

Paper No. MSEC2015-9256, pp. V002T05A016; 6 pages
doi:10.1115/MSEC2015-9256
From:
  • ASME 2015 International Manufacturing Science and Engineering Conference
  • Volume 2: Materials; Biomanufacturing; Properties, Applications and Systems; Sustainable Manufacturing
  • Charlotte, North Carolina, USA, June 8–12, 2015
  • Conference Sponsors: Manufacturing Engineering Division
  • ISBN: 978-0-7918-5683-3
  • Copyright © 2015 by ASME

abstract

Existing methods for bottleneck detection can be categorized into two: methods based on stochastic analysis and methods based on data-driven analysis. The stochastic methods are accurate in estimating bottlenecks in long term, ignoring the current improvement opportunities, while the data-driven methods tend to do the opposite. In this paper, we develop an optimal policy to integrate the two methods based on Markov decision theory. The characterization of the optimal policy is provided. In addition, to implement the policy, the optimal frequency for carrying out bottleneck analysis is investigated. Numerical experiment is performed to validate the effectiveness of the optimal policy and compare it to the existing methods.

Copyright © 2015 by ASME
Topics: Decision making

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