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Understanding the Impact of Expert Estimation Related Uncertainties on Architecture Generation and Supplier Identification

[+] Author Affiliations
Yun Ye, Marija Jankovic

Ecole Centrale Paris, Paris, France

Gül E. Kremer

The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA

Paper No. DETC2014-35084, pp. V01BT02A003; 11 pages
doi:10.1115/DETC2014-35084
From:
  • ASME 2014 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference
  • Volume 1B: 34th Computers and Information in Engineering Conference
  • Buffalo, New York, USA, August 17–20, 2014
  • Conference Sponsors: Design Engineering Division, Computers and Information in Engineering Division
  • ISBN: 978-0-7918-4629-2
  • Copyright © 2014 by ASME

abstract

The Architecture & Supplier Identification Tool (ASIT) is a design support tool enabling generation of system architectures in early design with consideration of supplier identification and evaluation. Several types of uncertainties have been considered in ASIT in order to estimate the overall uncertainty of the architectures. However, the subjective uncertainty caused by expert estimation had not been taken into account. Due to new technology integration and lack of information in early design, expert estimation is commonly used, which is also the case in the ASIT. As a considerable source of uncertainty, the consideration of subjective uncertainty may significantly influence the ASIT results, thus impacting the reliability of ASIT. This paper aims at understanding the sensitivity of the ASIT when subjective uncertainties are taken into account. The type-1 fuzzy sets and the 2-tuple fuzzy linguistic representation are selected to represent subjective uncertainties. A powertrain case study has been used to compare the results and test the sensitivity of ASIT. The comparison shows that the subjective uncertainty does not considerably influence ASIT results, and the ASIT is robust.

Copyright © 2014 by ASME
Topics: Uncertainty

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