Some Applications of the Monte Carlo Method to Gas Turbine Performance Simulations PUBLIC ACCESS

[+] Author Affiliations
Joachim Kurzke

MTU München GmbH, München, Germany

Paper No. 97-GT-048, pp. V004T16A003; 6 pages
  • ASME 1997 International Gas Turbine and Aeroengine Congress and Exhibition
  • Volume 4: Manufacturing Materials and Metallurgy; Ceramics; Structures and Dynamics; Controls, Diagnostics and Instrumentation; Education; IGTI Scholar Award
  • Orlando, Florida, USA, June 2–5, 1997
  • Conference Sponsors: International Gas Turbine Institute
  • ISBN: 978-0-7918-7871-2
  • Copyright © 1997 by ASME


The instrumentation readings taken during engine performance tests will show a random scatter that can be simulated with the Monte Carlo method. From such an exercise one can get the standard deviation of quantities that are derived from the pressure and temperature measurements like low pressure turbine efficiency of a high bypass engine, for example.

With the Monte Carlo Method a batch of engines can be simulated that have randomly distributed properties. Engine manufacturing tolerance in terms of thrust and specific fuel consumption can be derived from component production tolerance (efficiency, flow capacity) and internal air system variations. The Monte Carlo method is especially well suited for this task when complex interactions with the control system must be taken into account.

The Monte Carlo method can also be used to evaluate the confidence with which an overall engine performance level will be achieved from statements of component designers about the probability of achieving their design targets.

Tasks as described above can also be solved analytically, However, the Monte Carlo method is easier to use and also much less prone to error during its application.

Copyright © 1997 by ASME
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