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Risk and Reliability Modeling to Support Logistics Performance for Oil and Gas Terminals

[+] Author Affiliations
Jose Luis Martinez Gonzalez

Pemex, Mexico City, Mexico

Irani Perez Taylor

Pemex Refining, Cadereyta, NLE, Mexico

Jaime Cervantes Aguilar, Lorenzo Martinez de la Escalera

Corrosion & Proteccion, Cuernavaca, MOR, Mexico

Paper No. IPC2014-33331, pp. V004T05A004; 10 pages
  • 2014 10th International Pipeline Conference
  • Volume 4: Production Pipelines and Flowlines; Project Management; Facilities Integrity Management; Operations and Maintenance; Pipelining in Northern and Offshore Environments; Strain-Based Design; Standards and Regulations
  • Calgary, Alberta, Canada, September 29–October 3, 2014
  • Conference Sponsors: Pipeline Division
  • ISBN: 978-0-7918-4613-1
  • Copyright © 2014 by ASME


The oil and gas industry has three major segments: upstream, midstream and downstream. Upstream is frequently referred to as exploration & production. The midstream segment involves transportation, storage and marketing of oil and gas products. Transportation options may vary from small connector pipelines to massive cargo vessels covering trans-ocean routes. Most oil types may be transported in their original condition, while natural gas needs to be either compressed or liquefied for transmission. Storage helps to balance fluctuations between supply and demand of energy products. Downstream covers the refining and processing of hydrocarbons into usable products. Each segment has facilities to support one or various processes. Terminals include pipeline, rail, trucks and cargo transmission which imply a complex model to cover the whole facility to evaluate risk and reliability with all processes and functions involved. Before addressing the logistics of each midstream component the reliability of the involved assets needs to be evaluated. First to be considered is terminal location with respect to upstream and downstream. Onshore and maritime terminals have several components in common and two main processes may coexist (storage and distribution). All terminal components represent circuits with a specific sub process or function. Some circuits have a serial arrangement so they are highly dependent on each other’s reliability. Also some circuits develop parallel processes with null or low impact on the terminal main process; however they may influence the facility risk in terms of probability of failure and consequences. Support and auxiliary circuits play an important role in terminal reliability since they could affect performance and continuity. There are circuits thought of as transmission and logistics elements, and that reliability is highly dependent on mechanical integrity to perform a specific function. Maritime terminals may have a circuit of SPM (Single Point Mooring) buoys for loading or uploading product. The analysis model has to include every circuit to cover any possible arrangement and configuration. The model is supported by a processes mapper that allows the user to define serial, parallel and support processes based on a logistics scheme in terms of reliability and mechanical integrity. The developed model provides results to support decision making for product transmission and distribution and addresses the importance of terminals in terms of risk and reliability for logistics planning. The terminals model is supported by 16 algorithms that may be used according to operator needs by simply activating or deactivating circuits to obtain values for probabilities of failure that predict any potential service interruption.

Copyright © 2014 by ASME



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