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Mixed Weibull Distribution as Best Representative of Forced Outage Distribution to be Implemented in BlockSim

[+] Author Affiliations
Elisa Carlucci, Leonardo Tognarelli

GE Oil & Gas, Florence, Italy

Paper No. POWER2014-32282, pp. V001T06A009; 13 pages
  • ASME 2014 Power Conference
  • Volume 1: Fuels and Combustion, Material Handling, Emissions; Steam Generators; Heat Exchangers and Cooling Systems; Turbines, Generators and Auxiliaries; Plant Operations and Maintenance; Reliability, Availability and Maintainability (RAM); Plant Systems, Structures, Components and Materials Issues
  • Baltimore, Maryland, USA, July 28–31, 2014
  • Conference Sponsors: Power Division
  • ISBN: 978-0-7918-4608-7
  • Copyright © 2014 by ASME


When an RBD is required, Failure distribution and Outage distribution are requested as inputs for each block.

Should field data exist, the two distributions can be obtained by managing data in the most appropriate manner. While the Failure distribution is often a right censored data set, the outage distribution is always a time-to-failure distribution obtained through the RRX interpolation. Moreover, being the reliability approach conservative, the weibull 3P assumption is welcome, because the gamma value, in this particular circumstance, guarantees a minimum outage duration. However it has been noticed that while the 2P sometimes could be not-conservative enough, the 3P could result too much conservative with the risk of declaring a lower target than the actual one and hence with the consequence of not being commercially competitive. The proposed approach applies and develops the mixed weibull application, where each subpopulation distribution comes out from a single dataset, which represents a step forward after the traditional 2P and the more conservative 3P.

Copyright © 2014 by ASME



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