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A Comparison in the Accuracy of Mapping Nuclear Fallout Patterns Using DELFIC and Several Modified Models Based on DELFIC

[+] Author Affiliations
Jian-bo Shang

Tsinghua University, Beijing, ChinaNorthwest Institute of Nuclear Technology, Xi’an, Shaanxi, China

Quan-lin Shi, Qun-shu Wang

Northwest Institute of Nuclear Technology, Xi’an, Shaanxi, China

Paper No. ICONE21-16092, pp. V003T06A036; 6 pages
doi:10.1115/ICONE21-16092
From:
  • 2013 21st International Conference on Nuclear Engineering
  • Volume 3: Nuclear Safety and Security; Codes, Standards, Licensing and Regulatory Issues; Computational Fluid Dynamics and Coupled Codes
  • Chengdu, China, July 29–August 2, 2013
  • Conference Sponsors: Nuclear Engineering Division
  • ISBN: 978-0-7918-5580-5
  • Copyright © 2013 by ASME

abstract

There are several codes or software used to predict the distribution of fallout after nuclear explosion, such as Hazard Prediction and Assessment Capability (HPAC), Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) and Defense Land Fallout Interpretive Code (DELFIC). For the purpose of predicting on-site dose contours, DELFIC has better performance for its computation starts in an earlier time after explosion. Five nuclear fallout prediction codes are studied to determine which code predicts the most accurate fallout dose-rate contours with low computation time. These codes consist of DELFIC and several modified models based on DELFIC, such as Diffusive Transport Module modified with wafer thrower, Cloud Rise Module modified with Hill vortex model and Diffusive Transport Module modified to explain effect of 2-D stabilized cloud. These codes were compared with the Defense Nuclear Agency’s (DNA) DNA 1251-1-EX, Compilation of Local Fallout Data from Test Detonations 1945-1962 Extracted from DASA 1251, using NAD method. In the comparing of small boy test, it appears that there are few differences between different codes. Efforts will be made to find which model predicts less false negative or less false positive and the reasons of these faults will be studied.

Copyright © 2013 by ASME

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