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Quantitative Risk Assessment for Projects Schedules

[+] Author Affiliations
Sherif S. Hassanien, Jason B. Skow

C-FER Technologies, Edmonton, AB, Canada

Paper No. IPC2012-90548, pp. 61-67; 7 pages
  • 2012 9th International Pipeline Conference
  • Volume 1: Upstream Pipelines; Project Management; Design and Construction; Environment; Facilities Integrity Management; Operations and Maintenance; Pipeline Automation and Measurement
  • Calgary, Alberta, Canada, September 24–28, 2012
  • Conference Sponsors: International Petroleum Technology Institute, Pipeline Division
  • ISBN: 978-0-7918-4512-7
  • Copyright © 2012 by ASME


Despite vigilant efforts in project scheduling and planning by engineers and project managers, recent market research reported a marked decrease in project success rates. The market research tracked projects across a broad range of industries and concluded the primary failure causes to be a lack of sufficient detail in the project planning stage, poor or no risk analysis, scope creep and poor communication. This paper focuses on a strategy to minimize the first cause. Specifically, how to obtain sufficient schedule and resource estimates to better predict time allocation and expected costs with a focus on capital pipeline projects. To this end, a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) methodology is applied to project schedules allowing the uncertainty of key task durations and/or costs to be fully accounted for in the schedule. Projects managers will be able to quantify the uncertainty in their projects and support decision makers with a more accurate prediction of the likelihood of being on time and on budget. This paper introduces a systematic approach for both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty quantification. In addition, the expected benefits of adopting QRA for projects schedules are discussed through a hypothetical simple project schedule from the pipeline industry.

Copyright © 2012 by ASME
Topics: Risk assessment



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