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A Method for Activity Duration Estimation Based on Project Stability

[+] Author Affiliations
Daisuke Morita, Haruhiko Suwa

Setsunan University, Neyagawa, Osaka, Japan

Paper No. ISFA2012-7186, pp. 307-312; 6 pages
  • ASME/ISCIE 2012 International Symposium on Flexible Automation
  • ASME/ISCIE 2012 International Symposium on Flexible Automation
  • St. Louis, Missouri, USA, June 18–20, 2012
  • Conference Sponsors: Dynamic Systems and Control Division
  • ISBN: 978-0-7918-4511-0
  • Copyright © 2012 by ASME


During the planning phase in real project management, it is one of essential problems for any project to determine the duration of each activity. This paper proposes a new method for determining the duration of activities of a given project based on a cost associated with the deviation of the starting time of each activity. The proposed method calculates the expected cost associated with a starting time deviation for each activity and then determines the duration of each activity so as to minimize the total expected cost. The proposed method is compared with some conventional methods. The numerical results derive some properties of the estimation methods and demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Copyright © 2012 by ASME



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