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A Framework for Considering Uncertainty in Quantitative Life Cycle Cost Estimation

[+] Author Affiliations
Yee Mey Goh, Linda Newnes, Chris McMahon, Antony Mileham

University of Bath, Bath, UK

Christiaan J. J. Paredis

Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA

Paper No. DETC2009-86385, pp. 3-13; 11 pages
  • ASME 2009 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference
  • Volume 8: 14th Design for Manufacturing and the Life Cycle Conference; 6th Symposium on International Design and Design Education; 21st International Conference on Design Theory and Methodology, Parts A and B
  • San Diego, California, USA, August 30–September 2, 2009
  • Conference Sponsors: Design Engineering Division and Computers in Engineering Division
  • ISBN: 978-0-7918-4905-7 | eISBN: 978-0-7918-3856-3
  • Copyright © 2009 by ASME


Life Cycle Cost (LCC) is important information that is useful for decision making affecting complex engineering systems with extended life. Uncertainty in the estimation of LCC, especially in the early concept and definition stage, has great influence on the robustness of such decisions. Conventionally, Verification and Validation (V&V) of cost estimates is not performed, either due to economic or practical constraints. This paper presents a framework for considering uncertainties in quantitative life cycle cost estimation, focusing on the aspects that are important for understanding the discrepancies between the estimated and actual costs. Built on experience in verification and validation in engineering, the framework will be used to guide further research in this topic, where emphasis on suitable theories and models of different types of uncertainties in the estimation as well as strategies to deal with them effectively to improve decision making involving LCC will be discussed.

Copyright © 2009 by ASME
Topics: Cycles , Uncertainty



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