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F-22 MECSIP Lessons Learned: Risk Based Fatigue Scatter Factors High Durability Margin Analysis Using Miner’s Rule and Weibull Analysis

[+] Author Affiliations
Stefan M. Glista, Weibe Postema

Lockheed Martin, Marietta, GA

Lily Arcusa

F-22 System Program Office, Wright-Patterson AFB, OH

Brad Clark

F-22 System Support Office, Hill AFB, UT

Paper No. IMECE2011-63753, pp. 593-610; 18 pages
  • ASME 2011 International Mechanical Engineering Congress and Exposition
  • Volume 9: Transportation Systems; Safety Engineering, Risk Analysis and Reliability Methods; Applied Stochastic Optimization, Uncertainty and Probability
  • Denver, Colorado, USA, November 11–17, 2011
  • Conference Sponsors: ASME
  • ISBN: 978-0-7918-5495-2
  • Copyright © 2011 by ASME


A top-level safety requirement for aircraft is that the probability of structural failure, resulting in the loss of aircraft, shall be less than 1 × 10−7 per flight hour. A reasonable approach to justify fatigue scatter factors is to derive them from this top-level safety requirement. The minimum scatter factor that can be justified using Weibull analysis is a function of the material data and stress level. Typical results at realistic stress levels range from 8 to 16 lifetime analytical margin to the characteristic life of the S-N data set. Weibull analysis results demonstrate that a 4-life time test provides high probability of detecting a design margin shortfall. Scatter Factors are also derived for design loads and life tracking loads. The analysis discussion addresses single-point-failure safety critical structure; however, a Weibull based probability analysis for multiple-load-path structure with dependent failure mechanisms is also included. Graphical and statistical proofs justify the material scatter factors. The F-22 program uses Weibull based probability analysis for design margins, testing, certification and life management. We call the risk based scatter factor approach High Durability Margin Analysis (HDMA).

Copyright © 2011 by ASME



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