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Development of Complex Thermal Models Using Global Sensitivity and MCMC

[+] Author Affiliations
D. M. Bardot

University of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL

A. F. Emery

University of Washington, Seattle, WA

Paper No. IMECE2009-13010, pp. 1983-1990; 8 pages
  • ASME 2009 International Mechanical Engineering Congress and Exposition
  • Volume 9: Heat Transfer, Fluid Flows, and Thermal Systems, Parts A, B and C
  • Lake Buena Vista, Florida, USA, November 13–19, 2009
  • Conference Sponsors: ASME
  • ISBN: 978-0-7918-4382-6 | eISBN: 978-0-7918-3863-1
  • Copyright © 2009 by ASME


In order to simulate the behavior of a thermal protection system exposed to a sudden heat flux it was necessary to develop a model of the thermal degradation of the insulating foam. The model was based upon measured mass losses, Thermal Gravimetric Analysis (TGA) data. Models can range from the simplest one chemical reaction to a complex, pressure dependent lattice model incorporating as many as sixteen reactions. The paper describes the development of a model, calibration using a fixed set of data, an analysis of the sensitivity based upon the concepts of global sensitivity and the evaluation of the uncertainty of estimated parameters.

Copyright © 2009 by ASME



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