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The Benefits and Limitations of Using Risk Based Probabilistic and Deterministic Analysis for Monitoring and Mitigation Planning

[+] Author Affiliations
Steven Bott, Ryan Sporns

Enbridge Pipelines Inc., Edmonton, Alberta, Canada

Paper No. IPC2008-64539, pp. 797-807; 11 pages
  • 2008 7th International Pipeline Conference
  • 2008 7th International Pipeline Conference, Volume 2
  • Calgary, Alberta, Canada, September 29–October 3, 2008
  • Conference Sponsors: International Petroleum Technology Institute and the Pipeline Division
  • ISBN: 978-0-7918-4858-6 | eISBN: 798-0-7918-3835-8
  • Copyright © 2008 by ASME


The benefits and limitations of using both deterministic and probabilistic analysis are demonstrated using two case studies. The incorporation of High Consequence Area (HCA) data with deterministic and probabilistic analysis is an effective way to track the corrosion risk of a pipeline through time. Both types of analysis of high-resolution in line inspection corrosion data can be used to plan excavation and repair programs and set safe re-assessment intervals. Back to back high resolution corrosion inspections are presented to validate the use of these techniques along with a discussion on how to properly allocate resources to manage corrosion uncertainty.

Copyright © 2008 by ASME



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