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A Quantitative Approach to a Risk-Based Inspection Methodology of Main Steam and Hot Reheat Piping Systems

[+] Author Affiliations
Marvin J. Cohn, Philip M. Besuner

Aptech Engineering Services, Inc., Sunnyvale, CA

Jeffrey T. Fong

National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg, MD

Paper No. PVP2008-61242, pp. 1437-1446; 10 pages
  • ASME 2008 Pressure Vessels and Piping Conference
  • Volume 6: Materials and Fabrication, Parts A and B
  • Chicago, Illinois, USA, July 27–31, 2008
  • Conference Sponsors: Pressure Vessels and Piping
  • ISBN: 978-0-7918-4829-6
  • Copyright © 2008 by ASME


This paper presents an evaluation of the failure probability and cost of high energy piping (HEP) failures. Using a conventional definition of risk as the product of failure probability and failure consequence, we propose in this paper a dollar value of consequence in order to develop a quantitative approach to risk-based inspection (RBI) methodology. A 16-year historical database of probability and consequence was evaluated as an RBI methodology for devising a life management strategy for welds in main steam and hot reheat piping systems. This evaluation provides us the raw data necessary for producing a concrete example of this new Richter-scale-like approach. Uncertainty in consequence and probability estimates is also provided in plotting (a) a static consequence vs. likelihood diagram at a specific time for comparing the relative severity of a variety of potential failures, and (b) a dynamic risk vs. time diagram for a specific hardware under continuous monitoring where the effect of life management decisions over a period of time is quantitatively displayed. Significance of this new approach to risk-based inspection strategy for advancing the state-of-the-art of managing aging structures is discussed.

Copyright © 2008 by ASME



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