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Revised LOCA Frequency Estimates From an Expert Elicitation Process

[+] Author Affiliations
Paul M. Scott

Battelle Memorial Institute, Columbus, OH

Robert Lee Tregoning, Lee Richard Abramson

U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, D.C.

Paper No. PVP2008-61562, pp. 1417-1424; 8 pages
  • ASME 2008 Pressure Vessels and Piping Conference
  • Volume 6: Materials and Fabrication, Parts A and B
  • Chicago, Illinois, USA, July 27–31, 2008
  • Conference Sponsors: Pressure Vessels and Piping
  • ISBN: 978-0-7918-4829-6
  • Copyright © 2008 by ASME


The double-ended-guillotine break (DEGB) criterion of the largest primary piping system in the plant, which generally provides the limiting condition for the emergency core cooling system requirements, is widely recognized as an extremely unlikely event. As a result, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) is considering a risk-informed revision of the design-basis break size requirements for commercial nuclear power plants. In support of this effort, loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) frequency estimates were developed using an expert elicitation process by consolidating service history data and insights from probabilistic fracture mechanics (PFM) studies with knowledge of plant design, operation, and material performance. This paper describes, and presents the results for, two of the sensitivity analyses conducted as part of this effort (overconfidence adjustment and aggregation method) to examine the assumptions, structure, and techniques used to process the elicitation responses to develop group estimates of the LOCA frequency estimates.

Copyright © 2008 by ASME



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