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Uncertainties in Predictions by Complex System Codes

[+] Author Affiliations
Francesco D’Auria, Alessandro Petruzzi

University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy

Paper No. PVP2011-57353, pp. 955-964; 10 pages
  • ASME 2011 Pressure Vessels and Piping Conference
  • Volume 6: Materials and Fabrication, Parts A and B
  • Baltimore, Maryland, USA, July 17–21, 2011
  • Conference Sponsors: Pressure Vessels and Piping Division
  • ISBN: 978-0-7918-4456-4
  • Copyright © 2011 by ASME


Uncertainty analysis aims at characterizing the errors associated with experiments and predictions of computer codes, in contradistinction with sensitivity analysis, which aims at determining the rate of change (i.e., derivative) in the predictions of codes when one or more (typically uncertain) input parameters varies within its range of interest. In the present paper the salient features of established approaches for estimating uncertainties associated with predictions of complex system codes are reviewed together with the reasons why uncertainty evaluation is mandatory in nuclear reactor safety and licensing.

Copyright © 2011 by ASME
Topics: Complex systems



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