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A Risk-Informed Decision Making Methodology for Evaluating Failure Impact of Early System Designs

[+] Author Affiliations
Tolga Kurtoglu

NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Fields, CA

Irem Y. Tumer

Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR

Paper No. DETC2008-49359, pp. 457-467; 11 pages
  • ASME 2008 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference
  • Volume 4: 20th International Conference on Design Theory and Methodology; Second International Conference on Micro- and Nanosystems
  • Brooklyn, New York, USA, August 3–6, 2008
  • Conference Sponsors: Design Engineering Division and Computers in Engineering Division
  • ISBN: 978-0-7918-4328-4 | eISBN: 0-7918-3831-5
  • Copyright © 2008 by ASME


In this paper, we introduce a new risk-informed decision-making methodology for use during early design of complex systems. The proposed approach is based on the notion that a failure happens when a functional element in the system does not perform its intended task. Accordingly, risk is defined depending on the role of functionality in accomplishing designed tasks. A simulation-based failure analysis tool is used to analyze functional failures and their impact on overall system functionality. The analysis results are then integrated into a decision-making framework that relates the impact of functional failures and their propagation to decision making in order to guide system level design decisions. With the help of the proposed methodology, a multitude of failure scenarios can be quickly analyzed to determine the effects of decisions on overall system risk. Using this decision-making approach, design teams can systematically explore risks and vulnerabilities during early, functional stage of system development prior to the selection of specific components. Application of the presented method to a reservoir system design demonstrates these capabilities.

Copyright © 2008 by ASME



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