0

Full Content is available to subscribers

Subscribe/Learn More  >

Safety Level of a Probabilistic Admittance Policy

[+] Author Affiliations
Mark Bos, Olger Koop

Arcadis, Marknesse, The Netherlands

Ernst Bolt

Rijkswaterstaat DVS, Delft, The Netherlands

Paper No. OMAE2011-49357, pp. 263-271; 9 pages
doi:10.1115/OMAE2011-49357
From:
  • ASME 2011 30th International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering
  • Volume 2: Structures, Safety and Reliability
  • Rotterdam, The Netherlands, June 19–24, 2011
  • ISBN: 978-0-7918-4434-2
  • Copyright © 2011 by ASME

abstract

The main factor restricting admission of deep-draught ships to ports is the risk of bottom contact. In the approach channels to Rotterdam and IJmuiden such ships are subject to tidal windows because of the limited depths in the approach channels. Some decades ago probabilistic methods were introduced for the allocation of tidal windows for the Euro-Maas channel to Rotterdam and later also for the IJ channel to IJmuiden. These methods are being further developed. The increased accuracy of computational methods and of forecasted wave conditions and water levels may lead to an increased accessibility of the port. Recent developments have resulted in the new tidal window advice program Protide (PRObabilistic TIdal window DEtermination). The objective of the work presented in this paper is the verification and validation of Protide for the Euro-Maas channel to Rotterdam and for the IJ channel to IJmuiden. The probability of bottom contact during channel transit is simulated for time series of ten years of measured wave data and water levels. The fleet of ships is represented by a limited number of ships and for each ship all possible tidal windows for the ten year period are determined with Protide. A database is developed with motion response characteristics for each of the representative ships. For all possible arrival times in the ten-year period, indicated as safe by Protide, a channel transit is simulated. The probability of bottom contact during the simulated transit is computed from the motion response characteristics of the ship and with the measured wave spectra and the measured water level. Two safety criteria are applied. Firstly the probability of bottom contact during a single channel transit should not be excessive. Secondly the total probability of bottom contact during a long period of application of the admittance policy should be limited. To determine the probability that a certain ship is in a certain section of the channel some elements from queuing theory are applied. The probability that the ship is present in each channel section combined with the probability of bottom contact results in the probability of bottom contact for the ship in the channel. This leads to a long term probability of bottom contact for the channel. This paper presents the analysis method and selected simulation results for Euro-Maas channel in detail.

Copyright © 2011 by ASME
Topics: Safety

Figures

Tables

Interactive Graphics

Video

Country-Specific Mortality and Growth Failure in Infancy and Yound Children and Association With Material Stature

Use interactive graphics and maps to view and sort country-specific infant and early dhildhood mortality and growth failure data and their association with maternal

NOTE:
Citing articles are presented as examples only. In non-demo SCM6 implementation, integration with CrossRef’s "Cited By" API will populate this tab (http://www.crossref.org/citedby.html).

Some tools below are only available to our subscribers or users with an online account.

Related Content

Customize your page view by dragging and repositioning the boxes below.

Related eBook Content
Topic Collections

Sorry! You do not have access to this content. For assistance or to subscribe, please contact us:

  • TELEPHONE: 1-800-843-2763 (Toll-free in the USA)
  • EMAIL: asmedigitalcollection@asme.org
Sign In