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Extreme Weather Warning Criteria

[+] Author Affiliations
O̸istein Hagen, Gunnar Solland

Det Norske Veritas, Ho̸vik, Norway

Paper No. OMAE2009-80040, pp. 757-763; 7 pages
doi:10.1115/OMAE2009-80040
From:
  • ASME 2009 28th International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering
  • Volume 2: Structures, Safety and Reliability
  • Honolulu, Hawaii, USA, May 31–June 5, 2009
  • Conference Sponsors: Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering Division
  • ISBN: 978-0-7918-4342-0 | eISBN: 978-0-7918-3844-0
  • Copyright © 2009 by ASME

abstract

The paper addresses determination of the weather criteria that should apply for platforms that are assumed to be unmanned during storms. The methodology ensures that the safety of personnel on these platforms is at least as good as for personnel on platforms that satisfy current structural requirements for manned platforms. A probability based procedure is defined to achieve this goal. In this paper the requirements in the NORSOK standards are used as the reference standard for the structural reliability. The forecasted environmental conditions that require unmanning are determined by a stepwise procedure: First, adopting the principles of the structural code, we determine the maximum environmental action (described by crest elevation Clim ) the structure can resist. If Clim is lower than the crest corresponding to the requirements for manned structures, unmanning criteria are established. By integration over all sea states below the threshold significant wave height Hs,thr , the required Hs,thr is determined such that the probability that the annual maximum crest exceeds Clim , complies with the acceptance criterion. The forecasted environmental conditions at which shut-down and unmanning shall be completed are for Hs ≥ Hs,thr . The target probability for the governing failure mode is distributed between the directional sectors such that the frequency of unmanning the platform is minimized. Because forecasted wave directions are uncertain, the decision process is made more robust by a smoothing technique that retains the exceedance probabilities for the directional sectors.

Copyright © 2009 by ASME

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