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Project Risk Based Estimate and Management

[+] Author Affiliations
Ovidiu Cretu, Mark Gabel

Washington State Dept. of Transportation, Olympia, WA

Vlad Cretu

Cretu LLC, Olympia, WA

Paper No. POWER2010-27047, pp. 793-802; 10 pages
doi:10.1115/POWER2010-27047
From:
  • ASME 2010 Power Conference
  • ASME 2010 Power Conference
  • Chicago, Illinois, USA, July 13–15, 2010
  • Conference Sponsors: Power Division
  • ISBN: 978-0-7918-4935-4 | eISBN: 978-0-7918-3876-1
  • Copyright © 2010 by ASME

abstract

The paper presents the use of Risk Based Estimate (RBE) process and Risk Based Estimate Self-Modeling (RBES) eliminating the need of specialized software by allowing a regular MS Excel users to develop an integrated cost and schedule estimate with limited knowledge of risk analysis. The RBES offers the flexibility of entering: • The base project cost and schedule with different degrees of uncertainty associated with them; • Independent risks with both components: cost and duration; • Sophisticated risks which are dependent on each other and/or correlated. • Specific escalation rates for Real Estate acquisition, Preliminary Engineering (PE), and Construction (CN). • Risk response actions so that a “post-mitigated” analysis can also be conducted. Model outputs include graphs (Histograms and Cumulative Distribution Functions), and tables that present the project cost estimate range in current year dollars, and year of expenditure dollars for the three main phases of project delivery (PE, Real Estate, CN); RBES model output also includes the estimated ranges for the Advertisement date, and the End Construction date. In addition the RBES produces tornado diagrams of the most significant cost and schedule risks, and the risks map in order to help the project risk management efforts.

Copyright © 2010 by ASME

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