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A Study of a Railway Traffic Demand Forecasting Model Based on Influencing Factor Analysis

[+] Author Affiliations
M. S. Ma, J. Liu, C. Y. Li

Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing, China

Y. X. Ma

China Railway Siyuan Survey and Design Group Co., Ltd., Wuhan, China

Paper No. JRC2010-36249, pp. 553-559; 7 pages
doi:10.1115/JRC2010-36249
From:
  • 2010 Joint Rail Conference
  • 2010 Joint Rail Conference, Volume 2
  • Urbana, Illinois, USA, April 27–29, 2010
  • Conference Sponsors: Rail Transportation Division
  • ISBN: 978-0-7918-4907-1 | eISBN: 978-0-7918-3867-9
  • Copyright © 2010 by ASME

abstract

This paper introduced a model for the railway traffic demand prediction based on the analysis of the influencing factors over short-term passenger flow. The proposed prediction includes two parts, one for the relatively stable trend, named the basic flow forecasting, and the other for the fluctuations induced by short-term factors, named induced flow forecasting. The prediction model of the overall passenger volume utilizes the summation of the two parts. The experiments with real data demonstrate that the proposed model is effective in improving the accuracy of the prediction.

Copyright © 2010 by ASME
Topics: Railroads , Traffic

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