0

Full Content is available to subscribers

Subscribe/Learn More  >

Risk Based Estimate: Keep It Simple...

[+] Author Affiliations
Ovidiu Cretu

Washington State Department of Transportation, Olympia, WA

Vlad Cretu

Cretu Group, LLC, Redmond, WA

Terry Berends

Washington State Department of Transportation, Wenatchee, WA

Robert Stewart

Values Management Strategies, Inc., Portland, OR

Paper No. IMECE2010-39789, pp. 339-345; 7 pages
doi:10.1115/IMECE2010-39789
From:
  • ASME 2010 International Mechanical Engineering Congress and Exposition
  • Volume 11: New Developments in Simulation Methods and Software for Engineering Applications; Safety Engineering, Risk Analysis and Reliability Methods; Transportation Systems
  • Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, November 12–18, 2010
  • Conference Sponsors: ASME
  • ISBN: 978-0-7918-4448-9
  • Copyright © 2010 by ASME

abstract

The project cost and schedule estimate is a very subtle effort that needs to be repeated throughout the entire project’s life. The relatively new method of including risk events into the project cost estimate makes this effort more sensitive to subtleness. The authors have noticed during their work with other professionals that it is a tendency to make the processes of cost risk analysis (Risk Based Estimate (RBE)) more complicated than they should be. The authors call this tendency as “professional sophistication” when the RBE includes too many activities, too many uncertainties, and too many risk events. The “professional sophistication” usually is detrimental to the entire cost and schedule risk analysis and it constitutes a significant source of the analysis’ failure. The paper presents few cases when so called “professional sophistication” led to the initial analysis failure and if not caught in time to the project cost and schedule misrepresentation. The paper presents the reasons why the “Keep It Simple Smarty (KISS)” principle is critical for a robust and reliable cost and schedule risk analysis. The papers evaluate the impact of having too many variables included into RBE. It makes recommendation about the optimum number of variable that may be incorporated in the cost risk analysis. The ultimate recommendation is about being sure that the Risk Based Estimate includes only the uncertainties or risk events that may change significant the project cost or schedule.

Copyright © 2010 by ASME

Figures

Tables

Interactive Graphics

Video

Country-Specific Mortality and Growth Failure in Infancy and Yound Children and Association With Material Stature

Use interactive graphics and maps to view and sort country-specific infant and early dhildhood mortality and growth failure data and their association with maternal

NOTE:
Citing articles are presented as examples only. In non-demo SCM6 implementation, integration with CrossRef’s "Cited By" API will populate this tab (http://www.crossref.org/citedby.html).

Some tools below are only available to our subscribers or users with an online account.

Related Content

Customize your page view by dragging and repositioning the boxes below.

Related eBook Content
Topic Collections

Sorry! You do not have access to this content. For assistance or to subscribe, please contact us:

  • TELEPHONE: 1-800-843-2763 (Toll-free in the USA)
  • EMAIL: asmedigitalcollection@asme.org
Sign In