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Risk-Informed Decision Making for High-Consequence Outcomes

[+] Author Affiliations
Curtis Smith, Kurt Vedros

Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho Falls, ID

Paper No. IMECE2010-37187, pp. 273-278; 6 pages
doi:10.1115/IMECE2010-37187
From:
  • ASME 2010 International Mechanical Engineering Congress and Exposition
  • Volume 11: New Developments in Simulation Methods and Software for Engineering Applications; Safety Engineering, Risk Analysis and Reliability Methods; Transportation Systems
  • Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, November 12–18, 2010
  • Conference Sponsors: ASME
  • ISBN: 978-0-7918-4448-9
  • Copyright © 2010 by ASME

abstract

The issues faced during the operation of high-consequence facilities or systems require a blended quantitative and qualitative risk-informed approach to decision-making. For example, in the case of the operation of nuclear power plants or manned space missions, a risk-informed metric one might consider is the probability of loss of the plant or failure of the mission, where this probability is balanced by the consequences of the event. However, as we will discuss, one should focus on the observable event itself (e.g., the actual loss or failure) rather than the probability of the event. We will describe the general approach of making probabilistic decisions, including the focus on predictive distributions for outcomes such as a complex system failure.

Copyright © 2010 by ASME

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