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Risk Newsboy: Approach for Addressing Uncertainty in Developing Action Levels and Cleanup Limits

[+] Author Affiliations
Roger Cooke

Technical University Delft, Delft, The Netherlands

Margaret MacDonell

Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL

Paper No. ICEM2007-7324, pp. 199-203; 5 pages
doi:10.1115/ICEM2007-7324
From:
  • The 11th International Conference on Environmental Remediation and Radioactive Waste Management
  • 11th International Conference on Environmental Remediation and Radioactive Waste Management, Parts A and B
  • Bruges, Belgium, September 2–6, 2007
  • Conference Sponsors: Nuclear Division and Environmental Engineering Division
  • ISBN: 978-0-7918-4339-0 | eISBN: 0-7918-3818-8
  • Copyright © 2007 by ASME

abstract

Site cleanup decisions involve developing action levels and residual limits for key contaminants, to assure health protection during the cleanup period and into the long term. Uncertainty is inherent in the toxicity information used to define these levels, based on incomplete scientific knowledge regarding dose-response relationships across various hazards and exposures at environmentally relevant levels. This problem can be addressed by applying principles used to manage uncertainty in operations research, as illustrated by the newsboy dilemma. Each day a newsboy must balance the risk of buying more papers than he can sell against the risk of not buying enough. Setting action levels and cleanup limits involves a similar concept of balancing and distributing risks and benefits in the face of uncertainty. The newsboy approach can be applied to develop health-based target concentrations for both radiological and chemical contaminants, with stakeholder input being crucial to assessing “regret” levels. Associated tools include structured expert judgment elicitation to quantify uncertainty in the dose-response relationship, and mathematical techniques such as probabilistic inversion and iterative proportional fitting.

Copyright © 2007 by ASME
Topics: Uncertainty

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