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On the Estimation of Failure Rates of Multiple Pipeline Systems

[+] Author Affiliations
F. Caleyo, L. Alfonso, J. A. Alcántara, J. M. Hallen

DIM-ESIQIE, Instituto Politécnico Nacional, México, DF, México

F. Fernández Lagos, H. Chow

PEMEX Exploración y Producción, México

Paper No. IPC2006-10526, pp. 1107-1115; 9 pages
doi:10.1115/IPC2006-10526
From:
  • 2006 International Pipeline Conference
  • Volume 3: Materials and Joining; Pipeline Automation and Measurement; Risk and Reliability, Parts A and B
  • Calgary, Alberta, Canada, September 25–29, 2006
  • Conference Sponsors: Pipeline Division
  • ISBN: 0-7918-4263-0
  • Copyright © 2006 by ASME

abstract

In this work, the statistical methods for the reliability of repairable systems have been used to produce a methodology capable to estimate the annualized failure rate of a pipeline population from the historical failure data of multiple pipelines systems. The proposed methodology provides point and interval estimators of the parameters of the failure intensity function for two of the most commonly applied stochastic models; the homogeneous Poisson process and the power law process. It also provides statistical tests to assess the adequacy of the stochastic model assumed for each system and to test whether all systems have the same model parameters. In this way, the failure data of multiple pipeline systems are only pooled to produce a generic failure intensity function when all systems follow the same stochastic model. This allows addressing both statistical and tolerance uncertainty adequately. The proposed methodology is outlined and illustrated using real life failure data of multiple oil and gas pipeline systems.

Copyright © 2006 by ASME

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