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Impact of Prognosis on Asset Life Extension and Readiness

[+] Author Affiliations
Yevgeny Macheret

Institute for Defense Analyses, Alexandria, VA

Leo Christodoulou

Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, Arlington, VA

Paper No. IMECE2003-42391, pp. 97-100; 4 pages
  • ASME 2003 International Mechanical Engineering Congress and Exposition
  • Engineering/Technology Management: Safety Engineering and Risk Analysis, Technology and Society, Engineering Business Management, and Homeland Security
  • Washington, DC, USA, November 15–21, 2003
  • Conference Sponsors: Engineering and Technology Management Group
  • ISBN: 0-7918-3728-9 | eISBN: 0-7918-4663-6, 0-7918-4664-4, 0-7918-4665-2
  • Copyright © 2003 by ASME


Fatigue response of structural components is determined by environmental conditions, material microstructure, and loading history. Variation of these factors results in significant scatter in fatigue-crack growth rates and component life. In this paper, the impact of prognosis capability on asset life extension and readiness is evaluated. Fatigue-crack growth data on aluminum samples under controlled spectrum loading are used to describe the statistics of the crack-size distribution. Several sensors with different probability of detection (POD) characteristics are considered for detecting cracks of critical size, and the effect of the POD on the component life extension is evaluated. Although the crack-detection capability leads to the asset life extension, it is not sufficient to maintain required mission readiness. On the other hand, the prognosis capability, which is based on the knowledge of the component’s current damage state, damage evolution laws, and upcoming mission loading, allows required mission readiness to be maintained.

Copyright © 2003 by ASME
Topics: Life extension



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