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Simulation-Based Parametric Reliability Modeling Using Covariate Theory

[+] Author Affiliations
Jon M. Wallace, Dimitri N. Mavris

Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA

Paper No. IMECE2003-43945, pp. 87-95; 9 pages
doi:10.1115/IMECE2003-43945
From:
  • ASME 2003 International Mechanical Engineering Congress and Exposition
  • Engineering/Technology Management: Safety Engineering and Risk Analysis, Technology and Society, Engineering Business Management, and Homeland Security
  • Washington, DC, USA, November 15–21, 2003
  • Conference Sponsors: Engineering and Technology Management Group
  • ISBN: 0-7918-3728-9 | eISBN: 0-7918-4663-6, 0-7918-4664-4, 0-7918-4665-2
  • Copyright © 2003 by ASME

abstract

Reliability analysis methods used for preliminary safety assessments of complex systems typically assume a predetermined and invariant set of input variable statistical properties. However, during the product development phase of the system and especially during in service operation, the characteristics of the random variables can themselves be subject to variation. Thus, the resulting failure probability distribution can vary greatly from early predictions. The objective of this paper is to explore a technique used to create a general parametric failure probability distribution as a function of key variables. This technique is constructed around covariate theory which is the basis of the familiar Accelerated Life Testing and Proportional Hazards Modeling approaches. Where these approaches have traditionally been used with physical experiments, they are applied within this study to Monte Carlo simulation data generated using an available component modeling and simulation environment of a gas turbine airfoil limited by a single failure mode. Necessary modifications to the traditional from of the covariate approach are identified for application to controlled Monte Carlo simulation data. Implications to potential safety improvements early on in the product development phase are discussed.

Copyright © 2003 by ASME

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