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Probabilistic Prediction of Aviation Engine Critical Parts Lifetime

[+] Author Affiliations
Y. A. Nozhnitski, E. A. Lokshtanov, I. N. Dolgopolov, G. V. Shashurin, M. E. Volkov, N. V. Tsykunov, I. I. Ganelin

CIAM, Moscow, Russia

Paper No. GT2006-91350, pp. 1025-1034; 10 pages
  • ASME Turbo Expo 2006: Power for Land, Sea, and Air
  • Volume 5: Marine; Microturbines and Small Turbomachinery; Oil and Gas Applications; Structures and Dynamics, Parts A and B
  • Barcelona, Spain, May 8–11, 2006
  • Conference Sponsors: International Gas Turbine Institute
  • ISBN: 0-7918-4240-1 | eISBN: 0-7918-3774-2
  • Copyright © 2006 by ASME


Lifetime of disks and other aviation engine parts critical for safe operation is currently probabilistically predicted using mainly two methods. One method to predict lifetime is to confirm lifetime to low-cycle fatigue (LCF) cracking of a part without initial defects. The other method to predict lifetime is to confirm lifetime for safe propagation of a crack from initial defects available in a part. Combination of the above stated methods along with usage of margins on cyclic durability that ensure the required nonfracture probability presents another more conservative approach. Confirmation of lifetime to LCF cracking of a part without initial defects is usually performed based on results of cyclic tests of parts. The safe life determination algorithms were developed in Central Institute of Aviation Motors (CIAM) that take into account a difference in test outcome (“failure”–“no failure”). The developed software makes possible to consider the admissible failure probability, use the actual cyclic durability spread characteristics of the parts involving both lognormal and Weibull durability distributions. This paper discusses the examples of application of the elaborated methods and software. To confirm lifetime for safe propagation of a crack from defects available in a part, a program of statistical determination of durability of powder alloy disks with random fields of ceramic inclusions was developed in CIAM. This program allows performing the partition of disks into typical elements, the generation of realizations of initial defects for each typical disk element and calculation of life realizations corresponding to them, the statistical processing of the obtained data made with usage of asymptotic theory of extreme values, and the determination of technical risk functions for a disk as a whole. While developing the software, the problems of crack initiation and its stable propagation from ceramic inclusions were sequentially decided. Example of the calculation made according to the developed program is given in this paper. The probabilistically-justified approaches to determine the safe life shall be supplemented with the methods of economical and ecological risk analysis. In this case these approaches may become a good support for arranging the engine service to Reliability Centered Maintenance.

Copyright © 2006 by ASME
Topics: Engines , Aviation



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