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The Risk in Early Design (RED) Method: Likelihood and Consequence Formulations

[+] Author Affiliations
Katie Grantham Lough, Robert B. Stone

University of Missouri at Rolla, Rolla, MO

Irem Tumer

NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, CA

Paper No. DETC2006-99375, pp. 1119-1129; 11 pages
  • ASME 2006 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference
  • Volume 1: 32nd Design Automation Conference, Parts A and B
  • Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA, September 10–13, 2006
  • Conference Sponsors: Design Engineering Division and Computers and Information in Engineering Division
  • ISBN: 0-7918-4255-X | eISBN: 0-7918-3784-X
  • Copyright © 2006 by ASME


This study focuses specifically on the relationship between function and risk in early design by presenting a mathematical mapping from product function to likelihood and consequence risk assessments that can be used in the conceptual design phase. An investigation of a spacecraft orientation subsystem is used to demonstrate the proposed mappings. The risk assessment presented in this paper is a tool that will aid designers by identifying risks as well as reducing the subjectivity of the likelihood and consequence value from a risk element, provide four key risk element properties (design parameter, failure mode, likelihood, and consequence) for numerous risk elements with a simple calculation, and provide a means for inexperienced designers to effectively address risk in the conceptual design phase. The investigation demonstrates that the method presented in this paper is a useful tool for preliminary identification and assessment of product risks.

Copyright © 2006 by ASME
Topics: Design



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