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Alternative Techniques for Modeling Accident Progression in Aerospace Applications

[+] Author Affiliations
C. J. Everline

Scientech, Inc., San Diego, CA

Todd Paulos

Todd Paulos, Inc., Simi Valley, CA

Paper No. IMECE2002-32446, pp. 7-12; 6 pages
  • ASME 2002 International Mechanical Engineering Congress and Exposition
  • Safety Engineering and Risk Analysis
  • New Orleans, Louisiana, USA, November 17–22, 2002
  • Conference Sponsors: Safety Engineering and Risk Analysis Division
  • ISBN: 0-7918-3647-9 | eISBN: 0-7918-1691-5, 0-7918-1692-3, 0-7918-1693-1
  • Copyright © 2002 by ASME


A prerequisite for continuous risk management is a comprehensive risk assessment upon which decisions are predicated. Although advanced risk assessment techniques have been developed for numerous industries, they do not always have direct aerospace applicability. One particularly important issue pertains to modeling accident progression. This paper examines two techniques for accident progression modeling, evaluates their relative utility with respect to aerospace applications, and furnishes some sample illustrations of the methodologies.

Copyright © 2002 by ASME



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