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Probability Analysis of Motor Vehicle Accidents

[+] Author Affiliations
Scott Kimbrough

MRA Forensic Sciences, Murray, UT

Paper No. IMECE2002-32957, pp. 33-41; 9 pages
  • ASME 2002 International Mechanical Engineering Congress and Exposition
  • Design Engineering
  • New Orleans, Louisiana, USA, November 17–22, 2002
  • Conference Sponsors: Design Engineering Division
  • ISBN: 0-7918-3628-2 | eISBN: 0-7918-1691-5, 0-7918-1692-3, 0-7918-1693-1
  • Copyright © 2002 by ASME


Probability analysis is the key to extracting the maximum information from the evidence surrounding a motor vehicle accident. Moreover, it gives essential perspective to the answers drawn from the evidence, by conveying the uncertainty about the answers. In this paper, probability methods are used to analyze a typical intersection type collision between two vehicles. It is a situation in which one of the vehicles pulls out from a stop sign into the path of the other vehicle, which had the right of way. The vehicle that pulls out into the path of the oncoming vehicle precipitates the accident, but the driver of the oncoming vehicle may have contributed to the accident by traveling at excessive speed and or by being inattentive.

Copyright © 2002 by ASME



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