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Uncertainty Considerations for Ballistic Limit Equations for Aerospace Structural Systems

[+] Author Affiliations
William P. Schonberg

University of Missouri at Rolla

Hilary J. Evans

University of Denver Research Institute

Joel E. Williamsen

Institute for Defense Analysis

Roger L. Boyer, Glen S. Nakayama

NASA Johnson Space Center

Paper No. IMECE2005-79709, pp. 565-573; 9 pages
  • ASME 2005 International Mechanical Engineering Congress and Exposition
  • Applied Mechanics
  • Orlando, Florida, USA, November 5 – 11, 2005
  • Conference Sponsors: Applied Mechanics Division
  • ISBN: 0-7918-4212-6 | eISBN: 0-7918-3769-6
  • Copyright © 2005 by ASME


The overall risk for any spacecraft system is typically determined using a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). A PRA determines the overall risk associated with a particular mission by factoring in all known risks to the spacecraft during its mission. The threat to mission and human life posed by the mircro-meteoroid and orbital debris (MMOD) environment is one of the risks. NASA uses the BUMPER II program to provide point estimate predictions of MMOD risk for the Space Shuttle and the ISS. However, BUMPER II does not provide uncertainty bounds or confidence intervals for its predictions. In this paper, we present possible approaches through which uncertainty bounds can be developed for the various damage prediction and ballistic limit equations encoded within the Shuttle and Station versions of BUMPER II.

Copyright © 2005 by ASME



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