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Using Probabilistics and Advanced Software Tools for Reliability and Availability Assessment and Lifting

[+] Author Affiliations
Timot Veer, Olav Bolland

Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway

Paper No. GT2003-38474, pp. 433-440; 8 pages
doi:10.1115/GT2003-38474
From:
  • ASME Turbo Expo 2003, collocated with the 2003 International Joint Power Generation Conference
  • Volume 1: Turbo Expo 2003
  • Atlanta, Georgia, USA, June 16–19, 2003
  • Conference Sponsors: International Gas Turbine Institute
  • ISBN: 0-7918-3684-3 | eISBN: 0-7918-3671-1
  • Copyright © 2003 by ASME

abstract

The authors aim to formulate a methodology and describe a computational tool for predicting degradation, system lifetime as well as reliability and availability (R&A) data for combustion turbines. A further goal of the present work is to put the methodological and software basis to a computer aided performance prognostic system designed for supporting R&A focused operation. In this paper we present the main theoretical basis for the module, define the necessary main concepts and their interdependencies and give an outline to the main structure of such a module. As a starting point we give an overview of the most suitable reliability criteria to be used as characterizing such a system. The authors focus on the gas turbine power plant for electricity or mechanical drive application. The authors give two different alternatives for handling the problem of predicting R&A parameters. The first one overcomes the incertitude of lack of data by combining analytic and statistic expression of the unknowns. The second is based on a time marching simulation over the unknown interim operating conditions of the system.

Copyright © 2003 by ASME

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