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The Use of Sensitivity Analyses for Optimum Data Gathering in Risk and Threats Assessments

[+] Author Affiliations
Francois Ayello, Hao Chen, Narasi Sridhar

DNV GL, Dublin, OH

Lydia Ruiz, Travis Sera, Mari Shironishi

SoCalGas, Los Angeles, CA

Paper No. IPC2018-78402, pp. V002T07A018; 13 pages
doi:10.1115/IPC2018-78402
From:
  • 2018 12th International Pipeline Conference
  • Volume 2: Pipeline Safety Management Systems; Project Management, Design, Construction, and Environmental Issues; Strain Based Design; Risk and Reliability; Northern Offshore and Production Pipelines
  • Calgary, Alberta, Canada, September 24–28, 2018
  • Conference Sponsors: Pipeline Division
  • ISBN: 978-0-7918-5187-6
  • Copyright © 2018 by ASME

abstract

Pipeline engineers routinely perform risk assessments using a linear approach that begins with data collection, progresses through threat identification, and concludes with risk assessment. This linear risk assessment process leads to some inefficiencies. For example, since all data is gathered in the first step, inconsequential data might be collected during the data gathering process that diverts resources from other pipelines. This paper presents a different approach, where data is gathered iteratively based on its risk reduction value derived from a sensitivity analysis and data collection cost. Each time data is gathered; future risk predictions become more certain. This process is stopped when the cost of data gathering activities outweighs the benefit to risk predictions.

Copyright © 2018 by ASME

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