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A Nonlinear Data-Driven Model of Glucose Dynamics Accounting for Physical Activity for Type 1 Diabetes: An In Silico Study

[+] Author Affiliations
Jinyu Xie, Qian Wang

Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA

Paper No. DSCC2016-9742, pp. V001T09A002; 10 pages
  • ASME 2016 Dynamic Systems and Control Conference
  • Volume 1: Advances in Control Design Methods, Nonlinear and Optimal Control, Robotics, and Wind Energy Systems; Aerospace Applications; Assistive and Rehabilitation Robotics; Assistive Robotics; Battery and Oil and Gas Systems; Bioengineering Applications; Biomedical and Neural Systems Modeling, Diagnostics and Healthcare; Control and Monitoring of Vibratory Systems; Diagnostics and Detection; Energy Harvesting; Estimation and Identification; Fuel Cells/Energy Storage; Intelligent Transportation
  • Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA, October 12–14, 2016
  • Conference Sponsors: Dynamic Systems and Control Division
  • ISBN: 978-0-7918-5069-5
  • Copyright © 2016 by ASME


Physical activity is an important physiological information which should be taken into account by artificial pancreas to achieve optimal control of blood glucose in Type 1 Diabetes patients. An accurate glucose dynamic model with physical activity as an additional input is highly desirable for the next generation artificial pancreas. In this paper, we present a nonlinear data-driven model that captures both the insulin-independent and -dependent effect of physical activity, especially the prolonged effect of physical activity on insulin sensitivity that can last 24–48 hours post exercise. The model was identified and validated using data sets generated by a physiological glucose-exercise model under a clinical training protocol. Compared to modeling the effect of physical activity as a linear additive term only in a glucose dynamic equation, the proposed nonlinear model showed significant improvement of prediction accuracy in all three metrics, particularly in large prediction horizons (P < 0.05). Further investigation in time-series data indicates that the improvement mainly resulted from the better prediction of glucose around the first meal time after exercise (6 to 8 hours after the meal was taken).

Copyright © 2016 by ASME



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