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Probabilistic Distribution of Indirect Loss for the Risk Analysis of an Offshore Complex

[+] Author Affiliations
David De León

Instituto Mexicano del Petróleo, Mexico City, México

Cesar Ortega

Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México, Toluca, Estado de México, México

Paper No. OMAE2005-67009, pp. 3-8; 6 pages
doi:10.1115/OMAE2005-67009
From:
  • ASME 2005 24th International Conference on Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering
  • 24th International Conference on Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering: Volume 2
  • Halkidiki, Greece, June 12–17, 2005
  • Conference Sponsors: Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering Division
  • ISBN: 0-7918-4196-0 | eISBN: 0-7918-3759-9
  • Copyright © 2005 by ASME

abstract

The risk analysis of an oil complex require a careful estimation of failure consequences and, as an important component, the indirect loss may play a relevant role, especially for high production facilities. In this work, the interaction between the industrials sectors is considered uncertain by modeling it through random variables. The contribution of the five most important sectors is considered to be normally distributed and the value of its loss, as reported by INEGI (1986), is considered to be the mean value and a coefficient of variation of 0.1 is assumed for each sector loss. By using Monte Carlo techniques, the loss for each of the five sectors is simulated and the total indirect loss is calculated. The production loss is obtained by assuming that time to restore the production rate in the five platforms is 33 months. For each trial, the I/O matrix is obtained, the vector of predisaster products is calculated and the production loss is estimated. Then, the demand and the production level post-disaster are assessed. Finally, the second round and total losses are estimated. With the sample of indirect losses obtained, its probability distribution is estimated. The probabilistic description of the indirect loss includes, among other epistemic uncertainties, the one related to the sector interactions, which are considered as linear in a simplified way.

Copyright © 2005 by ASME

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